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As I sit here in the media center at Bethpage State Park on the eve of
round 1 of the second major championship, the big question is - Who
will win on the Black Course.
I took this question with me to the course early this morning. It's a
layout that I know pretty well (having played it more than half a dozen
times), the latest journey was a birdie-less 75 while in town for the 2016
PGA at Baltusrol. By far my best showing on Tillinghast's masterpiece
known as the "People's Country Club". I bring up my experiences here
only as a point of knowledge on the place, and that every once in a while,
I know how to play a bit. More importantly, I wanted to see if anything
had changed on the Black since my last visit. Not much has, it's just an old
fashioned grind it out golf course. It's not a fun track, it's not one that is
all that thought provoking (in terms of strategy). With zero OB, and just one
water hazard (pond that fronts the par 3 eighth), it's not a design that will
cost you numerous penalty strokes, it just simply tests your ball striking.
The green complexes are not tricky, they're flatish with subtle breaks (except
for the severely uphill par 4 fifteenth). Are you starting to get a picture now
of who will contend? If not, then here's a bit more food for thought . . .
The Black will be contested at just under 7500 yards and a par of 70. Meaning
just two par 5's, The fourth and the thirteenth. Add five straight days of rain
(before today) and chilly temps, and you're talking about a track that will play
more like 7700-7800 yards. The forecast is for more chilly temps with the
possibility of more rain, so the likelihood of the ball traveling far in the air or
getting any significant roll is nil. When I walked all 18 earlier today (it took
me 2.5 hours to walk the course without hitting a single shot), my impressions
were: a bomber who's striking it well (and straight off the tee) will be able to
keep his total score around even par. A medium length hitter will need for
everything to go his way, and a short hitter has ZERO chance.
So let's look at the top 20 Official World Golf Rankings.
1. Dustin Johnson
2. Justin Rose
3. Brooks Koepka
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Justin Thomas (Out w/injury)
6. Tiger Woods
7. Francesco Molinari
8. Bryson DeChambeau
9. Xander Schauffele
10. Rickie Fowler
11: Jon Rahm
12: Paul Casey
13: Matt Kuchar
14: Jason Day
15: Tony Finau
16: Tommy Fleetwood
17: Patrick Cantlay
18: Bubba Watson
19: Webb Simpson
20:Patrick Reed
Out of those 20, roughly half can be considered long hitters (J.Thomas
injured): DJ, Koepka, Rory, Tiger, Rahm, Day, Finau, Fleetwood and Bubba.
Players like Xander, Bryson, Casey, Cantlay, Fowler and Reed certainly
are plenty long enough. So the only players to eliminate from a length
standpoint is Kuchar and Webb Simpson. Bubba plays big curves on every
shot, that doesn't match with long wet unplayable rough. Bubba out.
In the OWGR 21-50 rankings a few players standout - Louie Oosthuizen,
Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson, J.B
Holmes and Lucas Bjerregaard. Jordan Spieth at no.39 is interesting, but
I'm just not buying.
In the pure wildcard category Thorbjorn Olesen, Keith Mitchell and 2009
U.S Open Champion at Bethpage - Lucas Glover are all intriguing enough
to give them a fighting chance. But Bethpage Black ultimately comes down
to supreme ball striking prowess, and specifically greens in regulation. Only
Tiger, Rory and Koepka are ranked in the top 15 in the overall GIR stat - with
Tiger leading the tour at 75.56%. Since there won't be many wedges into
the greens here this week, lets delve in a bit deeper with GIR % from 150-
175 yards.
Only Paul Casey and Rory from the OWGR top 20 rankings are near the top
of this key stat with Casey 2nd at 76.09 percent. McIlroy comes in 74.23 in
7th. in the 175-200 yard stat. Tiger leads at 80% with McIlroy 5th, Rose 7th
and Koepka 8th at 67.35%.
In the 200+ yard GIR stat, Henrik Stenson leads with Koepka 5th, Lucas
Bjerregaard 6th and McIlroy again in top 10 (9th) at 57.81%. DJ plays
the longer approaches well also, coming in 11th at 56.86%.
The one constant here is Rory McIlroy, also the best driver of the golf ball
who plays his best in wet soft conditions on greens that aren't treacherous.
So there you have it, DJ, Tiger, Rose and Koepka should contend, but the
Ulsterman named Rory has the best chance to walk off with the Wannamaker.
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