There’s no such thing as a mulligan in professional golf, but 2025 Masters champion Rory McIlroy was able to take advantage of the ultimate do-over in what was arguably the most critical moment in his career.
After an ideal drive down the left side of the fairway on the 72nd hole (Augusta National’s nerve-wracking 18th), McIlroy had 125 yards left and only needed a par to close out the tournament and become only the sixth player in history to complete the Career Grand Slam. PGA TOUR ShotLink data shows that the Northern Irish star leaves shots from that distance an average of 22 feet, 3 inches from the cup (In 2024, that stat was 19 feet for him.). Sounds like good odds to set up a two-putt par and slide into a Green Jacket, right?
Stats are great, but they don’t usually factor in tournament pressure or the weight of being a golfing superstar who has gone 11 years without a major victory.
McIlroy’s three-quarter gap wedge approach landed more than 50 ft right of the target and in the greenside bunker. He then failed to get up and down and found himself in a two-man sudden-death playoff with Justin Rose.
How out of character, or unlikely, was that miss, statistically? The PGA TOUR average for leave distance from 125 yards is 20 feet, 2 inches with PGA TOUR pros hitting the green from that range almost 80 percent of the time. McIlroy had about a 1 in 5 chance of missing the green. Roughly four out of five times, he lands it somewhere on a green from there.
Shot Scope data shows that even scratch handicappers leave shots from roughly 125 yards about 38 feet from the cup and hit the green from that range about 62 percent of the time. Possibly good enough to secure the par, but no real guarantee.
We’re curious now, what chance would the ordinary 15 handicapper have standing in for Rory in that fairway needing to play the final 125 yards in just three strokes?
From roughly 125 yards, Shot Scope data tells us 15 handicappers leave those shots an average of 72 feet from the hole, hitting the green just 32 percent of the time and needing nearly four strokes, on average, to finish out the hole. And, getting up and down from the greenside bunker after missing the green from 125 yards? Shot Scope data also tells us scratch players only get up and down from greenside sand 37 percent of the time and that success rate falls to 18 percent for our 15 handicappers.
Probably not steady enough skills to stand in for Rory, but who wouldn’t relish the chance?
Maybe club selection, distances hit, and leave distances with those clubs, can shed light on why it’s harder for some players to hit the green from that yardage. Remember, Rory had a three-quarter gap wedge in hand. From 125 yards, scratch players generally use the same club as the five-time major winner while 15 handicappers, on average, hit pitching wedge 121 yards and their 9-irons travel about 136 yards. Being in between clubs and possibly indecisive on such a pivotal shot would add to the pressure, no doubt.
McIlroy’s immense skill and perhaps a touch of fate intervened when the playoff started on the 18th hole, and he pummeled another drive into almost the exact same spot as he found himself on the 72nd hole. That’s as close to a mulligan as you’ll ever see in pro golf. Uncanny.
In the playoff, McIlroy hit the shot right at the pin and it rolled back to within two feet of the cup and holed the short winning putt to make history. How good was that shot? How about 10 times better than the PGA TOUR average?
For professionals, 125 yards and in qualifies as the scoring zone and as the game’s newest Career Grand Slam Club member showed us, it’s important to have a go-to swing from that yardage, honed by practice and trust.
Next, we might examine the 82-yard shot on the 13th hole that, shockingly, almost cost McIlroy the 2025 Masters title. For now, let’s let him enjoy the victory and maybe inspire us to work on that shot and track our own shot data in the Shot Scope app.
